What will happen if scotland was independent

These are not specified in the report, and would depend on the nature of a negotiated exit deal from the UK - perhaps added paperwork, delays in delivery, regulatory requirements, more complex contractual issues for the lawyers, and there would certainly be different VAT and corporate tax regimes, adding cost for business.

An important part of this argument is that Scotland sells much more to the rest of the UK than it does to Europe, so fracturing that UK relationship would have a much bigger impact - roughly four times bigger. The LSE study puts a price on this friction. Hold that thought: that assumption is important, and it is open to challenge.

Output gap. This is where we get to the crunchy numbers. The model estimates the impact on trade of these costs. First, it calculates what might happen if Scotland remains as it now is, outside the EU. The effect is that the lower friction costs would reduce Scotland's total economic output by 6. The model indicates that the higher costs would reduce growth by 8.

What happens if an independent Scotland then joins the European Union? That is seen as increasing the friction at the English-Scottish border, because it would be the frontier of the EU single market and customs union. The checks currently delaying trucks at Calais would also be necessary at Gretna. Easy access into the European Union's huge market would boost Scottish economic output but that would be offset by the reduction in trade with the rest of the UK.

If you want the numbers, the model predicts that Scottish income would be 6. With higher friction costs, the hit to income would be 7. An important note about those percentages.

They calculate that as the gap between Scotland's economic output after 15 years, and the output if Scotland remains within the UK. Some would be better off if they benefited from new trade arrangements, but the balance would likely be towards more people being worse off because of losing the old ones.

SNP response. Will it matter? Related Topics. Scotland economy Scottish independence Brexit. Log in. The pros and cons of Scottish independence - currently reading. In Depth. Popular articles. What do the different coloured poppies mean? The most extreme weather events of In pictures. The problem, though, is that Brexit has made it far more difficult for independence to work as a proposition. In practical terms, if a free Scotland wants the kind of free and easy movements and relationship with England, Northern Ireland and Wales we all currently enjoy, then independence makes that impossible.

Ask anyone in Northern Ireland, a relatively benign version of what happened. If the UK had stayed in Europe after — as David Cameron riskily promised the Scots in — then things would be relatively easy for an independent Scottish sovereign state. Independence would have been emotionally traumatic, but economically seamless.

Now, though, Scotland would be faced with the same kinds of choice that faced the UK, and indeed the EU, after the Brexit vote. Would an independent Scotland have a hard or soft border with England?

Would it wish to be a full member of the EU single market and customs union, or the UK equivalents? What about a common travel area, as Ireland and the UK still enjoy, uniquely? If Scotland seeks to be a full member of the EU, enjoying all the benefits and global clout that brings, how will it run its economic border with the UK? Or, more accurately, given that the border of an independent Scotland with England would also be the second land border between the EU and what remains of the UK, what does the EU want it to be?

Will it be a world where English tourists have their ham sandwiches confiscated at the border on the A74? Will the trains stop for a passport check as they cross the border?

And who decides that — Brussels or Edinburgh? Who, even, will be doing the negotiations with London? Initially, it would have to be Edinburgh, but as EU membership for Scotland became closer to reality it would be a matter for Brussels as well. It would be very messy and the flow of goods north and south would be inevitably slowed, probably permanently. Sailing or flying direct from Scotland to the European heartland would surely add costs and reduce the reliability of supplies?

Like it does for Ireland, England represents a practically unavoidable land bridge to Europe, as well as a huge market in itself, and getting around it will not be easy.